MILLIY IQTISODIYOTDA EKSPORT AMALIYOTIGA TA’SIR ETUVCHI OMILLARNI EKONOMETRIK TAHLILINI BAHOLASH
Ключевые слова:
Eksport amaliyoti, makroiqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlar, logistika tizmi, valyuta kursi, inflyatsiya, asosiy kapitalga kiritilgan investitsiya, milliy iqtisodiyot, ekonometrik modellashtirishtirishАннотация
Maqolada eksport amaliyoti va unga tasir etuvchi omillarga ekonometrik modellardan foydalangan holda ilmiy tahliliy ishlanma olib borildi. Maʼlumotlar ko‘p omilli vaqtli qatorlar asosida shakllantirilganligi sababli ekonometrik tenglamalar avtoregressiv taqsimlangan kechikish ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) modelidan foydalangan holda ishlab chiqildi. Mamlakatimizda eksport amaliyoti va unga taʼsirini ishlab chiqishda O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidenti huzuridagi statistika agentligi (www.stat.uz) Markaziy bankva Jaahon banki maʼlumotlarining 23 yillik ko‘rsatkichlaridan foydalanildi. Shuningdek, ARDL modeli bo‘yicha vaqtli qatorlar grafik matritsasi ishlab chiqildi. Bog‘liq va mustaqil o‘zgaruvchilar bog‘lanishlarning korrelyatsion matritsasi, statsionarlik holatini tekshirishda Unit-root test ko‘rsatkichlari, kointegratsiya uchun Bound testi tekshirildi hamda ARDL modeli regression tenglamasi ishlab chiqildi. Shuningdek, ishlab chiqilgan ARDL modeli regression tenglamasini Gaus Markovning muhim shartlari hamda Cusum diognostik testi bilan tekshirildi. Tadqiqotda muallif yondashuvlari va takliflari keltirilgan.
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